Introduction: While anti-PD-1±CTLA-4 immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are effective in treating advanced melanoma, only half of treated patients will survive beyond 5 years, and many experience significant toxicity. The personalised immunotherapy program aims to enhance the prediction of anti-PD-1±CTLA-4 ICI resistance by integrating clinical, molecular, and immunological profiles to identify treatment-resistant melanoma and to prioritise these patients for novel therapies.
Methods: This study developed predictive models for ICI resistance in 305 patients with advanced melanoma treated with anti-PD-1±CTLA-4 ICIs, incorporating clinicopathological data, tumour mutation burden (TMB), gene expression profiling (GEP), and spatial quantitative pathology immune profiling (TME). An ensemble of models was used with a consensus nested cross-validation. Models were sequentially developed by adding omics features to clinical factors in a discovery cohort (n=255). Model performance was evaluated using a discriminative index and validated on an independent cohort (n=50).
Results: The model developed using baseline clinical factors alone achieved an area under the curves (AUC) of 68% in the discovery cohort. Adding immune cell proportions and spatial interactions from TME to clinical factors increased the AUC to 82%. The addition of TMB and melanoma driver mutations increased the AUC to 83%. GEP-derived immune and stromal signatures increased the AUC to 84% when combined with clinical characteristics. Combining clinical factors, TME, and GEP improved the AUC to 86%. The combination of clinical factors and TMB with either GEP or TME achieved an AUC of 89%. The combination of clinical factors with all omics features yielded the highest AUC (93%). The aggregated risk scores from all omics achieved an AUC of 86% and 92% in the discovery and validation cohorts, respectively.
Conclusion: These results underscore the benefit of personalised precision treatment in clinical practice to enhance immunotherapy outcomes in melanoma patients and focus drug development resources to patients most in need.